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Copenhagen Accord Creates a Climate of Uncertainty

World's largest carbon-emitters fail to create clear mitigation targets

Kirsten Nelson-Johnson

In 1992, at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, representatives from more than 150 nations- including former President George H.W. Bush- signed an agreement giving birth to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Its mission: for the nations of the world to work together and effectively mitigate and respond to climate change. It began holding sessions called the Conference of the Parties—COPs. The conference in Copenhagen this past month, is the 15th such session. One of the most historically significant sessions was COP3 in 1997, which established the Kyoto Protocol.

The Conference of Parties 15 has just come to a close and has disappointed much of the international community. Since the conclusion of the conference on December 18^th, a number of participants have been blamed for the short-comings of the Copenhagen Accord. 

The conference did serve its purpose in bringing together the most important players in the international community on climate change. It opened the discussion to scientists, politicians, activist, business' and non-profits alike.

The location of this conference could not have been a better example of what individual countries need to do on a domestic level. Denmark, and its minister Lene Espersen, are committed to creating sustainable policies that change the way business is done. It seems as if the Danes took a hard look at themselves after the 1973 Arab oil embargo and found themselves totally dependent on Middle East oil. Subsequently, they went about  putting in place a long-term strategy to make Denmark energy-secure and start a new industry at the same time.

Today, Copenhagen puts only 3 percent of its waste into landfills and incinerates 39 percent to generate electricity for thousands of households. Although it still generates the majority of its electricity from coal, Denmark has reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by 14 percent since 1990. Over the past two decades Danish energy consumption has also stayed constant and Denmark’s gross domestic product has grown by more than 40 percent. Renewable resources currently supply almost 30 percent of Denmark’s electricity, with wind power being the largest source of renewable electricity.  Denmark is the most energy efficient country in the European Union.

However, you may still be asking what the Copenhagen Accord did achieve, aside from attracting criticism. First, it provides for real cuts in heat-trapping carbon pollution by all of the world’s big emitters.  Second, it established a framework for evaluating countries’ performance with increased transparency.  And third, it will start a much larger flow of resources to help developing and vulnerable nations cope with the impacts of climate change and adopt clean energy policy.

No one, politicians included, is pointing to the accord as all we need to stop global warming. President Obama was candid upon the conclusion of the conference, and remarked that it is only “a first step”. Are we holding the accord to standards and expectations that no possible outcome could have been reasonably met?

The general consensus on the part of the scientific community is that we must mitigate climate change and avoid an increase of  2° Celsius (3.6° Fahrenheit) in order to avoid the most horrific effects, which have the potential to create millions of environmental refugees across the globe. The accord reached is generally considered to not to be enough to keep us under this 2° C threshold.

In reality, the accord creates an “open enrollment” period through the end of January for countries to record their emission reduction commitments and actions.  Countries that sign up in this period will be sort of original co-sponsors, although later participants and  any commitments can be recorded anytime thereafter. So far larger companies have identified their goals in the past year, but have not committed them to a binding agreement.

Hopes now lie with COP16 to be held next year in Mexico City, where the Copenhagen Accord is meant to be made a binding agreement between countries. While no commitments were made to this effect, the progress made during the COP15 is clear. Much of what has been discussed and agreed upon by world leaders would have been almost unthinkable only a year ago.

To follow the future of this agreement and to find out more, here are some useful links:

http://en.cop15.dk/

http://cop15.state.gov/